You are the project manager for your organization. Your project is doing fine on time and cost, but
management wants to address the project performance for future accomplishment. Management
has asked you to begin reporting and forecasting your project’s health based on a moving
average, extrapolation, trend estimation, and growth curve. What type of forecasting method is
management asking you to use?

A.
Judgmental methods

B.
Causal/econometric methods

C.
Time series methods

D.
Estimate at completion method

Explanation:
These are examples of a time series method for forecasting project performance. Another method
that fits with the time series method of forecasting is earned value management. Forecasting is the
process of estimating or predicting in unknown situations. Forecasting is about predicting the
future as accurately as possible with the help of all the information available, including historical
data and knowledge of any future events that might impact forecasts. The forecasting methods are
categorized as follows: Time series method: It uses historical data as the basis for estimating
future outcomes. Causal/econometric method: This forecasting method is based on the
assumption that it is possible to identify some factors that might influence the variable that is being
forecasted. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and
used in the forecast. Judgmental method: Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive
judgments, opinions, and subjective probability estimates. Other methods: Other methods may
include probabilistic forecasting, simulation, and ensemble forecasting.
Answer option B is incorrect. Causal/econometric methods do not use the moving average, but
models such as linear regression and non- linear regression.
Answer option A is incorrect. Judgmental methods for forecasting are based on intuition, opinions,
and probability estimates.
Answer option D is incorrect. The estimate at completion method is an earned value management
formula, which is part of the time series method for reporting and forecasting performance.