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What is a three-point estimate?

Andy is the project manager of the NHGQ project for his organization. He has elected to use a
three-point estimate for his project. His project team, however, is complaining about participating
in this estimate type because of the time it takes to predict the duration of activities. Andy, as the
project manager, tells the project team that they must create the time estimate, as it will help this
project and future similar projects. What is a three-point estimate?

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A.
Each activity must be estimated for its optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely duration.

B.
Each activity must be estimated for its optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely duration and then
an average for the estimate is created.

C.
A three-point estimate, also known as PERT, uses the formula optimistic, plus four times the
most likely, plus the pessimistic. This value is then divided by six.

D.
A three-point estimate, also known as GERT, uses the formula optimistic, plus four times the
most likely, plus the pessimistic. This value is then divided by six.

Explanation:
A three-point estimate requires that each activity be estimated for its optimistic, most likely, and
pessimistic duration. Once the three estimates have been created, an average of the duration
estimates is found and this is the recorded duration for the project work.

Answer option A is incorrect. This is not a complete explanation of a three-point estimate.
Answer option C is incorrect. This is a definition of PERT, a similar time estimating technique.
Answer option D is incorrect. This is definition of PERT, but this answer uses the term GERT so it
is not a valid choice.

One Comment on “What is a three-point estimate?

  1. xxx says:

    PMBOK 6.5.2.4 three-Point Estimating

    Depending on the assumed distribution of values within the range of the three estimates the expected duration, tE, can be calculated using a formula. Two commonly used formulas are triangular and beta distributions. The formulas are:
    • triangular distribution. tE = (tO + tM + tP) / 3
    • Beta distribution (from the traditional PERT technique). tE = (tO + 4tM + tP) / 6
    Duration estimates based on three points with an assumed distribution provide an expected duration and clarify the range of uncertainty around the expected duration.

    Conclusion:
    Choice B is incorrect. We don’t necessarily use average for tE
    Choice C is incorrect. We don’t necessarily use PERT formula
    Choice D is incorrect. Pert not Gert
    Choice A is the only one left.




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