Sam is the project manager for his organization. His project is not doing well on project schedule
performance, and management wants him to predict how the project schedule and cost will end.
Management has asked Sam to report and forecast his project’s performance based on the Delphi
Method, scenario building, technology forecasting, and to forecast by analogy. What forecasting
method is management asking Sam to use?

A.
Judgmental methods

B.
Time series methods

C.
Causal/econometric methods

D.
Earned value management method

Explanation:
Management is asking Sam to use the judgmental methods to predict how the project will finish on
time and cost. The judgmental forecasting method incorporates intuitive judgments, opinions and
subjective probability estimates. Some examples of judgmental forecasting are as follows:
Composite forecasts Surveys Delphi method Scenario building Technology forecasting Forecast
by analogy
Answer option B is incorrect. Time series methods of forecasting use earned value management,
moving average, extrapolation, linear prediction, trend estimation, and growth curve.
Answer option D is incorrect. The earned value management method is actually a part of the time
series forecasting method.
Answer option C is incorrect. The causal/econometric methods use linear and non-linear
regression, autoregressive moving average, and econometrics.